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Sunday, July 22, 2007

Warrior Town 

Another good win making it 5 from the last 6, or 142 from their last 306 depending on how you want to look at it.

They have moved into 6th spot on points differential over the Bulldogs and Tigers. And if the Eels beat the Broncos by more than 13 tomorrow then they will move into 5th. It's so tight though that a couple of consecutive losses can mean a fall of several places and likewise with a couple of wins.

However even if the Warriors lose next week at home to the Knights they will still be in the top 8 so they are starting to get a solid hold on things.

They should beat the Knights though and go within a couple of wins of booking their playoff spot. I've used the NRL ladder predictor and its possible that 24 points will get a playoff spot so long as your for and against record is good.

Anyway, the run home...

6th Warriors (20)
Knights (H)
Roosters (A)
Titans (H)
Raiders (A)
Sea Eagles (H)
Panthers (A)

now as finishing stretches go that's about as easy as it gets in the NRL. Only one game against a team in the top 8. If all the matches go to form the Warriors should win 5 from 6, finish on 30 points and probably get a home semi final. I'd be surprised if they don't drop one or two though, most likely away to the Raiders and maybe away to a resurgent Roosters or Panthers in the last game if they have already booked their spot.

For the Warriors to miss the playoffs with that run home when they are in 6th spot now would require the biggest fuckup since the invasion of Iraq.

Of the teams around them this is what they face:

4th Cowboys (22)
Tigers (A)
Raiders (H)
Panthers (A)
Dragons (H)
Knights (A)
Bulldogs (H)

Now the Cowboys should be alright with that lot, but they won't want to lose next week or they will be right back in the pack.

5th Broncos (20) game in hand
Eels (H)
Sharks (H)
Sea Eagles (H)
Storm (A)
Bulldogs (H)
Raiders (A)
Eels (A)

Is that the worst run home you've ever seen or what?!

7th Bulldogs (20)
Dragons (A)
Eels (H)
Raiders (H)
Broncos (A)
Storm (H)
Cowboys (A)

That's bloody brilliant for the Warriors. They could drop any of those games with the exception of the Raiders.

8th Tigers (20)
Cowboys (H)
Titans (A)
Roosters (H)
Sharks (A)
Rabbitohs (H)
Knights (H)

A similar draw to the Warriors. They should win most and threaten for the top 4 but after being totally outplayed by the Warriors on home soil today maybe not?

It seems that several of the sides around the Warriors are going to beat the shit out of each other so even if we drop games they will be dropping them too.


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