Wednesday, September 14, 2005
Bugger the Pollsters
No good news for Labour today, with National 6 points ahead in the AC/Nielson poll and 3.5 points ahead in the ODT poll. Official response of BIR bloggers: fuck.
But ... I think there are questions to be asked about the polling techniques (he says optimistically). Rodney Hide has pointed to the strange nature of the TV1 questions in Epsom, which to say the least did him no favours, and now an office mate reports to me that she was polled on Monday night - she thinks by AC Nielson - who asked such leading questions as:
"Which party do you think will fix health care?"
and
"Which party do you think will crack down on crime?"
These questions (a) assume there are problems in both areas; and (b) correspond almost perfectly with National Party campaign slogans. At the very least, by suggesting/taking for granted that there are significant problems in these areas, the poll implies that the government is at fault and only a party in opposition can fix the problem. Let's face it, the implied answer to both questions is "National".
Although I'm not sure if these questions were before or after the all-important "which party will receive your party vote?" question.
But ... I think there are questions to be asked about the polling techniques (he says optimistically). Rodney Hide has pointed to the strange nature of the TV1 questions in Epsom, which to say the least did him no favours, and now an office mate reports to me that she was polled on Monday night - she thinks by AC Nielson - who asked such leading questions as:
"Which party do you think will fix health care?"
and
"Which party do you think will crack down on crime?"
These questions (a) assume there are problems in both areas; and (b) correspond almost perfectly with National Party campaign slogans. At the very least, by suggesting/taking for granted that there are significant problems in these areas, the poll implies that the government is at fault and only a party in opposition can fix the problem. Let's face it, the implied answer to both questions is "National".
Although I'm not sure if these questions were before or after the all-important "which party will receive your party vote?" question.
Comments:
DC: You do realise that the polling company could be doing different polls, they could simply be asking questions for a different survey (ie on behalf of a political party etc).
Or perhaps there is a polling company conspiracy to get National elected in 2005 (what about in 1999 and 2002 then, to which the reply will be, it was all part of the master plan).
Do you think the polling company was asking the same questions in 1999 when National was in power? Of course.
On crime being a problem, this survey (by the Police Association which doesn't necessarily mean that they don't have an agenda to push) says that the "Public Think Crime And Violence One Of The Top Four Most Important Problems Facing The Country Today".
I am sure if I had more time to troll the internet looking for stories I could find a similiar survey saying people think health is a problem (although I wonder when people ever though health wasn't a problem). Of course people blame the government, it is a fact of life. You lose your job, it is the government's fault. I am not stupid (or partisian enough) to think it is Labour's "fault", but people tend to blame the government when there is a problem and polls tend to ask such questions.
Although, if things are going good in the country, then the government can also claim the credit. For example if there is low unemployment the government could claim credit saying it was their policies which were responsible for the success even if it could be established that there are external factors at play.
So, yes I do concede that polls can be anti-government, but things have always been like that.
P.S On a completely unrelated topic, I just finished watched a documentary entitled Fog of War which was simply outstanding. It won an Academy Award recently for best documentary. Do a google search for reviews. If you have broadband it is available on Pirate Bay for ummm. evaluation purposes to see if you like it. Don't worry the documentary is not some right-wing doco, iif anything it is left of center. There are also some criticisms of some of the facts in the doco which can be found here.
-Dinkas
Or perhaps there is a polling company conspiracy to get National elected in 2005 (what about in 1999 and 2002 then, to which the reply will be, it was all part of the master plan).
Do you think the polling company was asking the same questions in 1999 when National was in power? Of course.
On crime being a problem, this survey (by the Police Association which doesn't necessarily mean that they don't have an agenda to push) says that the "Public Think Crime And Violence One Of The Top Four Most Important Problems Facing The Country Today".
I am sure if I had more time to troll the internet looking for stories I could find a similiar survey saying people think health is a problem (although I wonder when people ever though health wasn't a problem). Of course people blame the government, it is a fact of life. You lose your job, it is the government's fault. I am not stupid (or partisian enough) to think it is Labour's "fault", but people tend to blame the government when there is a problem and polls tend to ask such questions.
Although, if things are going good in the country, then the government can also claim the credit. For example if there is low unemployment the government could claim credit saying it was their policies which were responsible for the success even if it could be established that there are external factors at play.
So, yes I do concede that polls can be anti-government, but things have always been like that.
P.S On a completely unrelated topic, I just finished watched a documentary entitled Fog of War which was simply outstanding. It won an Academy Award recently for best documentary. Do a google search for reviews. If you have broadband it is available on Pirate Bay for ummm. evaluation purposes to see if you like it. Don't worry the documentary is not some right-wing doco, iif anything it is left of center. There are also some criticisms of some of the facts in the doco which can be found here.
-Dinkas
# posted by 
: 14 September 2005 at 13:22
: 14 September 2005 at 13:22
Wow… mao ni ang chada nga issue sa cagayan… mga mahilig sa scandal… tsk… tsk… ang sama ng image ng cagayan.
The BIR scandal pictures
The BIR scandal pictures
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