Tuesday, September 13, 2005
End of the world as we know it?
Scoop Editor Selwyn Manning has made his predictions for interesting electorates, tipping basically every marginal electorate as well as a couple of the "safe" Labour seats to fall to National: Northcote, both the Hamiltons, East Coast, Whanganui, Wairarapa, Aoraki, Otago, Invercargill, and maybe Napier for good measure. As well as losing Te Tai Tokerau and Tamaki Makaurau to the Maori party.
The only Labour victory he sees in a seat of interest is Wellington Central, which seems like a bit of a foregone conclusion at this point.
He's not willing to call Tauranga which seems a bit strange, but does predict a National hold in Epsom. Which I think is also heading towards "well, d'uh" category.
These are big swings to National here ... if all of the above unfolds as Manning predicts, then National will also win the Party vote by a large margin, surely, making electorate battles generally just matters of human interest.
The only Labour victory he sees in a seat of interest is Wellington Central, which seems like a bit of a foregone conclusion at this point.
He's not willing to call Tauranga which seems a bit strange, but does predict a National hold in Epsom. Which I think is also heading towards "well, d'uh" category.
These are big swings to National here ... if all of the above unfolds as Manning predicts, then National will also win the Party vote by a large margin, surely, making electorate battles generally just matters of human interest.
Comments:
DC: Viva Le Revolution!
I don't think that you should equate National picking up electorate seats with National winning the party vote by a large margin. If National beat Labour by more than 5 percentage points, I will think nice thoughts about Keith Locke for a day. As much as I would like for National to win by a large margin, I just don’t see that happening.
I predict that National will beat Labour in the party vote by about 2-3 percentage points.
If there is concern about Labour’s party vote dropping, I think that could hurt the Greens as some “Labour” supporters who were leaning towards the Greens might switch back to Labour. This might cause the Greens to move closer to the 5% mark.
Obviously, this is all dependent on nothing new happening between now and election day.
I don’t want to say anything about Winston in case by some freak of nature I direct good luck towards Winston.
P.S Given National’s performance at the last election I am quite surprised they are actually ahead of Labour in some polls. If Labour lose, they will need to have a serious look at how they managed to lose.
-Dinkas
I don't think that you should equate National picking up electorate seats with National winning the party vote by a large margin. If National beat Labour by more than 5 percentage points, I will think nice thoughts about Keith Locke for a day. As much as I would like for National to win by a large margin, I just don’t see that happening.
I predict that National will beat Labour in the party vote by about 2-3 percentage points.
If there is concern about Labour’s party vote dropping, I think that could hurt the Greens as some “Labour” supporters who were leaning towards the Greens might switch back to Labour. This might cause the Greens to move closer to the 5% mark.
Obviously, this is all dependent on nothing new happening between now and election day.
I don’t want to say anything about Winston in case by some freak of nature I direct good luck towards Winston.
P.S Given National’s performance at the last election I am quite surprised they are actually ahead of Labour in some polls. If Labour lose, they will need to have a serious look at how they managed to lose.
-Dinkas
# posted by 
: 13 September 2005 at 12:12
: 13 September 2005 at 12:12
Post a Comment