Sunday, September 11, 2005
I'm willing to call it
A highly scientific election predictor, based on 1/3rd polling, 1/3rd hunching, and 1/3rd bullshitting:
All Important Party Vote
Labour 41%
National 39%
Greens 7%
NZ First 5.5%
United Future 2.5%
Maori Party 2%
Act 1.5%
Others 1.5%
Interesting Electorate Face-Off Predictor
Aoraki - Labour
Hamilton East - National
Hamilton West - Labour
Epsom - National
Tamaki Makaurau - Maori
Tauranga - National
Te Tai Tokerau - Maori
Northcote - Labour
Otago - National
Wellington Central - Labour
Whangarei - Labour
Faintly Possible Upset of the Night
Wigram - Labour
Resulting Numbers of MPs (Roughly)
Labour 49
National 47
Greens 8
NZ First 7
United Future 3
Maori Party 4
Act 0
Others (Progressives) 1
All Important Party Vote
Labour 41%
National 39%
Greens 7%
NZ First 5.5%
United Future 2.5%
Maori Party 2%
Act 1.5%
Others 1.5%
Interesting Electorate Face-Off Predictor
Aoraki - Labour
Hamilton East - National
Hamilton West - Labour
Epsom - National
Tamaki Makaurau - Maori
Tauranga - National
Te Tai Tokerau - Maori
Northcote - Labour
Otago - National
Wellington Central - Labour
Whangarei - Labour
Faintly Possible Upset of the Night
Wigram - Labour
Resulting Numbers of MPs (Roughly)
Labour 49
National 47
Greens 8
NZ First 7
United Future 3
Maori Party 4
Act 0
Others (Progressives) 1
Comments:
Is it just me or do all SST polls seem to favour National more than other polls do?
Example (latest)
National 44
Labour 37
Herald Sunday digipoll
Labour 42.1
National 38.5
I actually think it is irresponsible, and shoddy journalism for them to come out and have bold headlines declaring this or that when in fact somebody else has completely different figures and completely different headlines.
Herald on Sunday: "National rides rollercoaster polls
11.09.05
By Jonathan Milne and Patrick Crewdson
The Exclusive Brethren Church was last night accused of using young teenagers in a mucky election tactics - as a snap poll shows National and its leader Don Brash have been wounded over his dealings with the church.
Today's Herald on Sunday-DigiPoll shows Labour with 42.1 per cent party-vote support, ahead of National on 38.5 per cent, while respondents say they trust Helen Clark well ahead of Dr Brash."
SST: "Brash survives Brethren fiasco
11 September 2005
By TIM HUME and HELEN BAIN
National has leapt to a seven-point lead over Labour in the first poll since the Exclusive Brethren saga, showing Don Brash has escaped unscathed after his apparently damaging U-turn last week.
The Friday night ACNielsen-Sunday Star-Times poll of 540 voters gave National 44 per cent support and Labour 37 per cent.
It was the first gauge of public reaction since Brash's admission he knew Exclusive Brethren were behind anti-government and anti-Green pamphlets, contradicting his denials. Auckland University politics professor Barry Gustafson said Brash had survived the week "remarkably well", with the Exclusive Brethren pamphlets proving a distraction rather than a king-hit to its campaign."
It's going to come down to the day when people go to the polling stations and are thinking either "change" or "competence". Two different results.
Example (latest)
National 44
Labour 37
Herald Sunday digipoll
Labour 42.1
National 38.5
I actually think it is irresponsible, and shoddy journalism for them to come out and have bold headlines declaring this or that when in fact somebody else has completely different figures and completely different headlines.
Herald on Sunday: "National rides rollercoaster polls
11.09.05
By Jonathan Milne and Patrick Crewdson
The Exclusive Brethren Church was last night accused of using young teenagers in a mucky election tactics - as a snap poll shows National and its leader Don Brash have been wounded over his dealings with the church.
Today's Herald on Sunday-DigiPoll shows Labour with 42.1 per cent party-vote support, ahead of National on 38.5 per cent, while respondents say they trust Helen Clark well ahead of Dr Brash."
SST: "Brash survives Brethren fiasco
11 September 2005
By TIM HUME and HELEN BAIN
National has leapt to a seven-point lead over Labour in the first poll since the Exclusive Brethren saga, showing Don Brash has escaped unscathed after his apparently damaging U-turn last week.
The Friday night ACNielsen-Sunday Star-Times poll of 540 voters gave National 44 per cent support and Labour 37 per cent.
It was the first gauge of public reaction since Brash's admission he knew Exclusive Brethren were behind anti-government and anti-Green pamphlets, contradicting his denials. Auckland University politics professor Barry Gustafson said Brash had survived the week "remarkably well", with the Exclusive Brethren pamphlets proving a distraction rather than a king-hit to its campaign."
It's going to come down to the day when people go to the polling stations and are thinking either "change" or "competence". Two different results.
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