Sunday, August 28, 2005
Labour Routs All-Comers in Poll
A colleague informed me that his year 13 economics class had a mock election a few days ago and the results leave no doubt whatsoever of the mood of the entire nation.
Labour 97%
National 3%
others 0%
margin of error (who cares it's so conclusive).
And that's a fact.
Labour 97%
National 3%
others 0%
margin of error (who cares it's so conclusive).
And that's a fact.
Comments:
Not wanting to sound like a prick (ok, that is a lie :) ), you have quietly forgotten to mention the latest poll to be released with National having a 6 point lead.
Greens also fell from 8% to 5%. What a nice start to the day :)
-Dinkas
Greens also fell from 8% to 5%. What a nice start to the day :)
-Dinkas
# posted by 
: 28 August 2005 at 16:18
: 28 August 2005 at 16:18
Dinkas, the notion of a 10% swing away from the left in the course of half a week, in which the news for National was fairly mixed, is (frankly) bullshit.
It would take 2 weeks of unmitigated good news to get that kind of swing.
Anyone willing to offer odds on a Government including the Prince of Tauranga lasting more than 6 months?
It would take 2 weeks of unmitigated good news to get that kind of swing.
Anyone willing to offer odds on a Government including the Prince of Tauranga lasting more than 6 months?
DC: 2 weeks ago Labour was leading National by one point. Then, according to this poll National was behind by 13 points before the tax cut. Obviously, after National released their tax policy they would gain some advantage. I think it is unsurprising that they is not a sudden surge to National afterwards (this of course doesn't mean the surge will last).
I think the overall result of the poll, a 1 point difference between the two, is right. It will be interesting 2 and a half weeks.
-Dinkas
I think the overall result of the poll, a 1 point difference between the two, is right. It will be interesting 2 and a half weeks.
-Dinkas
# posted by : 30 August 2005 at 03:56
: 30 August 2005 at 03:56
Similarly, I don't believe National was ever behind by 13 points. These huge swings just don't happen. We're talking about the SST here ... doubt anyone there passed School Cert maths.
DC: If the SST had conducted their own poll I wouldn't believe it. This poll was conducted by an outside polling agency.
Large swings don't surprise me especially just after major policy releases.
Now, I will wait and see if the Greens & NZ First fall below 5%.
-Dinkas
Large swings don't surprise me especially just after major policy releases.
Now, I will wait and see if the Greens & NZ First fall below 5%.
-Dinkas
# posted by : 30 August 2005 at 16:55
: 30 August 2005 at 16:55
A colmar brunton poll done at the same time had National up by 3 rather than the 6 suggested in the poll above.
The margin of error must have been decent in these 'half' polls that they have looked at.
We won't know what's going on for sure until after the next poll which hopefully won't have any major announcements sandwiched in the middle of it.
I'll guess from polls now on we can start to put a fair amount of stock in them because unless there is something huge secret being kept it will be smaller sized announcements up to the election (at least not the size of the tax ones).
The margin of error must have been decent in these 'half' polls that they have looked at.
We won't know what's going on for sure until after the next poll which hopefully won't have any major announcements sandwiched in the middle of it.
I'll guess from polls now on we can start to put a fair amount of stock in them because unless there is something huge secret being kept it will be smaller sized announcements up to the election (at least not the size of the tax ones).
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