Monday, April 28, 2008
Don't Hit the Panic Button... Yet
There's been a lot in the sports media in the past few weeks about the Warriors inability to win away from home. I think it's been blown out of proportion somewhat by WHO they have been playing. Their draw so far has been abysmal. There isn't a team in the competition that could claim to have had a worse draw than Storm, Eels, Sea Eagles, Knights, Bulldogs, Cowboys and Titans and the four hardest in that lot have all been away. They've played the other 3 teams that made the top 4 last year and this years current front runners.
I've done a bit of digging to look at the records of each team at home and here they are...
Melbourne: 34 wins from 36 games (we were hardly going to win that were we?, that home record is verging on the unbelievable in a competition this even).
Manly: 17 wins from 19 (not as long as Melbourne's but becoming about as impressive).
North Queensland: 13 wins from 19 (Not unbeatable but then, it's a better home record than most and the Warriors have now lost 6 straight there so it isn't just this Warriors team that has a problem there with our last win being in round 4 of 2002).
Gold Coast: 5 from 5 at their new home ground (Skilled Park) and 7 from 7 going back to last year.
So yeah, combined those teams are 71 wins from 81 games for a 87.6% win rate. That's the stuff legends are made of in a competition where the average home win/loss ratio last year was 55/45.
The Warriors draw for the rest of the year is unsurprisingly much friendlier. They face several of the more difficult teams at home and their road journeys aren't quite so bad although none are ever easy.
Next up they are home to the Raiders who won't be a push over, then they have the 2 points from the bye and then are away to the Panthers. Contrast their next three away opponents home records in recent times and things look a bit more winnable.
Check it...
Penrith: 4 wins from 17
Newcastle: 5 wins from 14
Sharks: 1 win from 9 (that's right, the Sharks have now won just 1 of their last 9 home games).
So those three teams have a combined home record (from my selection) of 10 wins and 30 losses, a 25% win rate.
The Warriors do sorely miss McKinnon and Price though and we can add Ropati who was playing well and now probably Vatuvei for a bit. So the road games will be 50/50 at absolute best but they'll sure as shit by better odds than the 10/90 ones we've been facing.
I've done a bit of digging to look at the records of each team at home and here they are...
Melbourne: 34 wins from 36 games (we were hardly going to win that were we?, that home record is verging on the unbelievable in a competition this even).
Manly: 17 wins from 19 (not as long as Melbourne's but becoming about as impressive).
North Queensland: 13 wins from 19 (Not unbeatable but then, it's a better home record than most and the Warriors have now lost 6 straight there so it isn't just this Warriors team that has a problem there with our last win being in round 4 of 2002).
Gold Coast: 5 from 5 at their new home ground (Skilled Park) and 7 from 7 going back to last year.
So yeah, combined those teams are 71 wins from 81 games for a 87.6% win rate. That's the stuff legends are made of in a competition where the average home win/loss ratio last year was 55/45.
The Warriors draw for the rest of the year is unsurprisingly much friendlier. They face several of the more difficult teams at home and their road journeys aren't quite so bad although none are ever easy.
Next up they are home to the Raiders who won't be a push over, then they have the 2 points from the bye and then are away to the Panthers. Contrast their next three away opponents home records in recent times and things look a bit more winnable.
Check it...
Penrith: 4 wins from 17
Newcastle: 5 wins from 14
Sharks: 1 win from 9 (that's right, the Sharks have now won just 1 of their last 9 home games).
So those three teams have a combined home record (from my selection) of 10 wins and 30 losses, a 25% win rate.
The Warriors do sorely miss McKinnon and Price though and we can add Ropati who was playing well and now probably Vatuvei for a bit. So the road games will be 50/50 at absolute best but they'll sure as shit by better odds than the 10/90 ones we've been facing.
Comments:
I’m looking forward to reading what Randomanity has to say here…
# posted by 
: 29 April 2008 at 10:13
: 29 April 2008 at 10:13
The silence was deafening after the hiding we dished out to the Bulldogs.
Meanwhile I'm fucked if I can get into sportsfreak.com today.
Meanwhile I'm fucked if I can get into sportsfreak.com today.
You mean www.sportsfreak.co.nz ??
Yeah, there were server problems in the morning, and then for a bit again in the afternoon.
If that ever happens again, check out Yellow Fever (run off the same box). If that's also down you'll know someone's working on it.
Yeah, there were server problems in the morning, and then for a bit again in the afternoon.
If that ever happens again, check out Yellow Fever (run off the same box). If that's also down you'll know someone's working on it.
# posted by : 29 April 2008 at 17:36
: 29 April 2008 at 17:36
My silence?
Blame it on writing news stories to placate Yamis' incipient homicidal tendencies.
As for my beloved Doggies, well I'd be the first to admit they're more Chihuahua than Rottweiler this season. In fact they're stinking it up like a rancid turd and no amount excuses will make it otherwise.
However, having said that, I'm still sure (sort of) that they'll make the top 8 come the sharp end of the season.
Who knows, maybe they'll end up knocking the Warriors out of the finals.
That is, of course, depending on the Warriors making it that far.
;-)
Blame it on writing news stories to placate Yamis' incipient homicidal tendencies.
As for my beloved Doggies, well I'd be the first to admit they're more Chihuahua than Rottweiler this season. In fact they're stinking it up like a rancid turd and no amount excuses will make it otherwise.
However, having said that, I'm still sure (sort of) that they'll make the top 8 come the sharp end of the season.
Who knows, maybe they'll end up knocking the Warriors out of the finals.
That is, of course, depending on the Warriors making it that far.
;-)
Random, for the first time since 2005 the Bulldogs WILL NOT make the playoffs. They just aren't coached well, led well and have lost two key forwards. they may only just miss out but I think the cracks have widened too far now.
The Warriors will make the playoffs if Price comes back and stays fit and will not if he doesn't.
They need something like a 9 win, 3 loss record at home and a 4 win, 8 loss record away. So far one is looking good and the other, errr... not so.
The Warriors will make the playoffs if Price comes back and stays fit and will not if he doesn't.
They need something like a 9 win, 3 loss record at home and a 4 win, 8 loss record away. So far one is looking good and the other, errr... not so.
What news stories do you write Random?
Doggies in 2-in-a-bed shock?
Warriors win in Australia?
Doggies in 2-in-a-bed shock?
Warriors win in Australia?
# posted by : 29 April 2008 at 21:44
: 29 April 2008 at 21:44
Here's some facts for you Random.
Bulldogs lose 4 straight outside Sydney. In fact they haven't won a game outside Stadium Australia (their home) since round 23 last year.
And, Bulldogs lose 8 from last 11.
How's that?!!!!!!
nah, nah, nah, nah, naaaaaahhhh
Bulldogs lose 4 straight outside Sydney. In fact they haven't won a game outside Stadium Australia (their home) since round 23 last year.
And, Bulldogs lose 8 from last 11.
How's that?!!!!!!
nah, nah, nah, nah, naaaaaahhhh
And when have facts have anything to do with the basis of fandom?
:-)
My support for the Dog's is irrational, unwarranted, and quite frequently insane.
And I think the same argument could apply to fans of other franchises too. But let's not go there eh.
:-)
My support for the Dog's is irrational, unwarranted, and quite frequently insane.
And I think the same argument could apply to fans of other franchises too. But let's not go there eh.
I support the Warriors because I have been a league player and fan since I was a little fulla and because I live in Auckland which is the home city of the Warriors.
I'd say that's a fairly normal, common and understanding reason for being a fan.
As opposed to why I am a fan of the St Louis Rams which is because my mum bought a Rams shirt for me when I was about 11 for my league practice, or why I am a Red Sox fan which is because I worked with a Canadian who was a massive fan and they had a Korean pitcher so all their games were televised. Or why I am a fan of Newcastle United which is because my great, great grand parents lived there.
blah dee blah blah
I'd say that's a fairly normal, common and understanding reason for being a fan.
As opposed to why I am a fan of the St Louis Rams which is because my mum bought a Rams shirt for me when I was about 11 for my league practice, or why I am a Red Sox fan which is because I worked with a Canadian who was a massive fan and they had a Korean pitcher so all their games were televised. Or why I am a fan of Newcastle United which is because my great, great grand parents lived there.
blah dee blah blah
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