blogging it real

I've been having a bit of a shocker but am not alone there. Going in the high 50% range which is a touch worse than last year. I'm hoping to break 60% but am fast running out of time. Not helped of course by teams following up good wins with awful losses and home teams losing to teams they should beat. There is nothing but a little inside knowledge, some gut instinct and plain old good luck to go on tipping in the NRL. The friday night games (matches of the round) are always the easiest to tip and regularly I and others are 2-0 going into the saturday games and then things tend to turn to shit with say 2 or 3 correct from 6 games being pretty common.

I've actually gone through the teams form records and compiled a list of the most consistent/inconsistent. It's worked out by the number of times they have followed a win with a loss or a loss with a win.

The winner is the Panthers who have alternated 10 times. The most consistent team is the Cowboys who have alternated only twice. Three losses followed by three wins followed by eleven losses. Impressively, consistently shit. Here's the full list.

Panthers 10
Broncos 9 (11 if you count the draw which I'm not)
Titans 9
Raiders 9
Warriors 9
Eels 9
Storm 8
Sharks 8
Tigers 8
Bulldogs 8
Roosters 7
Knights 7
Dragons 6
Sea Eagles 5
Rabbitohs 4
Cowboys 2

So I guess that means good teams to tip for or against are the Dragons, Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Cowboys. Bad teams to try to tip are the Panthers, Broncos, Titans, Raiders and Warriors. And the rest aren't much better.

Anyway, this weeks tips are below and follow the link to compare them to Sportsfreak and Leaguefreak.

Broncos v Sharks
Broncos by 8
Broncos won last week and got a right royal telling off from the coach about a shit effort. After all, they only beat the Cowboys. Sharks were a bit fortunate to grind out a win and shouldn't quite have enough to take this one out.

Eels v Cowboys
Eels by 16
The Eels could potentially screw this one up but the way the Cowboys are going you just can't tip them to win anything.

Raiders v Titans
Raiders by 14
Titans on the road, Raiders at home. How cliched is this?

Panthers v Tigers
Panthers by 8
Tigers ended the Bunnies streak last week so are ina touch of form but these two teams have followed wins with losses and losses with wins all year so the form book says fuck all. I'm having a guess and reckon the black pussies beat the ginger pussies.

Warriors v Storm
Storm by 12
This is the sort of game that the Warriors can definately win. They have risen for home games v top sides (provided they have a bit of form) many times before. The only problem is that the Storm are probably 2 or 3 levels above them most weeks. And you'd pick the Storm to win this maybe 7 or 8 times out of 10 so I'll go with the head.

Knights v Rabbitohs
Knights by 10
The Knights have been ridiculously inconsistent and the Rabbitohs have the ability to come home strong and lay points on at a rate of knots, but the loss last week might have just knocked a little bit of their stuffing out.

Roosters v Sea Eagles
Sea Eagles by 6
The Sea Eagles have been playing good footie but against some of the pretenders. This is a chance for them to really crank it up and make a few more people take notice. It still won't matter for shit later in the year though.

Dragons v Bulldogs
Dragons by 8
Well SBW didn't play and their WAS a full moon so that mean't I was fucked. With two Bulldogs suspended and after last weeks effort you'd say no chance for the Dogs. The Dragons though have hit a speed bump with consecutive losses so should lift for this one.

Labels: nrl tipping