blogging it real

Bit easier this week, only 4 to tip. Historically there is at least one upset each week in terms of the lower ranked team tipping over the top side. Last year saw the first time the 1st ranked team (Storm) lost to the 8th ranked team (Warriors). I'm not tipping any upsets though the away team is good enough to win any of them.

Storm v Sea Eagles
Storm by 4
Both teams have been up and down lately with patches of excellent play interspersed with piss poor stuff. The Storm have Inglis back and they are pretty hard to beat at home so I'll tip them in a tight, tough battle.

Titans v Broncos
Titans by 10
I've been dubious about the Titans for quite some time. However I reckon that in front of a soldout home crowd they will look to prove the doubters wrong and touch up a Broncos side which is deep down plain ordinary.

Bulldogs v Knights
Bulldogs by 10
Clearly the most mediocre looking playoff match. A Bulldogs side which has shown less and less of an edge as the year has gone on v a side that could have easily missed the playoffs and nobody would have noticed. Bulldogs to use the home advantage to take care of business.

Dragons v Eels
Dragons by 12
Damn. Would be nice to see the Dragons lose and have to play again next week and I think it will be much tighter but there's probably a reason the Dragons came 1st and the Eels 8th.

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl tipping

The race has nearly been run. I've pulled a few hammy's along the way but I'm gonna get there!!!!

Tigers v Eels
Eels by 4
This should be an absolute rip roaring cracker of a match. Or one side could blow the other ones confidence and with it, season away. I could go either way but the dice came up blue and yellow.

Dragons v Broncos
Dragons by 10
Unthinkable a couple of weeks ago but the Broncos probably won't lose this game by 70 points. In fact there is an extremely small chance of an upset. But it's so small I'm not going to be a dickhead and pick it.

Knights v Cowboys
Knights by 4
Another interesting clash. The Cowboys are all over the shop and the Knights played some good footie last weekend to knockoff the Storm. I have a feeling that they might struggle to do that 2 weeks running and they are awful finishers which will play on their minds but maybe a big turnout will provide the defibrolator they need for one more week on their season.

Panthers v Rabbitohs
Panthers by 6
The Rabbitohs are travelling a touch better but only because the Panthers were munted off the park by the Broncos. Teams that were killed on the road often bounce back at home the net week. Fingers crossed for this tipster.

Titans v Sharks
Titans by 14
The Sharks season died long ago. they played a bit of decent footie just for the hell of it but now they have remembered that a) they are shit and b) their season really did die long ago so c) they have nothing left to play for except Mad Monday. Uh, oh!

Warriors v Raiders
Raiders by 6
I really want to pick the Warriors but I just can't. They have given up. The Raiders whould have but showed last week they've got some rock'n'roll left on them smacking the shit out of the side that should win the comp. The Warriors need to swallow some fucken man pills and bash the shit out of somebody for the first time in a long time.

Storm v Sea Eagles
Storm by 4
Please oh please let the Storm win this. I have no further comment.

Bulldogs v Roosters
Bulldogs by 24
The biggest mismatch of the round. So the Roosters to win it then. Fucking NRL!!!

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl tipping

Broncos v Rabbitohs
Broncos by 8
Might be hard for the Broncos after THAT match as half their side is in out or in doubt but I reckon this will kick off a rocking round of football with everybody pumped up and ready to belt the crap out of everybody else. Broncos to give Queenslanders something to smile about.

Bulldogs v Titans
Bulldogs by 4
This should be a cracker but the Bulldogs have too many bullets and the Titans are flattering to decieve with their possie on the ladder.

Panthers v Raiders
Panthers by 6
This is a bloody lottery. It's Jekyll vs Hyde... or is that Hyde vs Jekyll? Tune in and find out.

Sharks v Sea Eagles
Sea Eagles by 4
The Sea Eagles got well and truly touched up last week but they weren't as bad as the score suggests (unfortunately). On Sharks home turf this should be a good stoush but the birdies will fall over the line.

Roosters v Warriors
Draw
Something might galvanise the Warriors soon into playing some football. The attitude is generally there but there's no x-factor with that dud Jones in the halves but maybe seeing your captain get laid out during the week will make them do something good for once. But I'm going with form and pick a 0-0 result.

Tigers v Cowboys
Tigers by 6
Thurston will probably have an absolute stormer but the Tigers may just have sorted their shit out. Or not.

Eels v Storm
Storm by 2
Hindmarsh's 250th game won't quite be enough to get the Eels home here. The Storm will have a few battered and bruised but they will have had 5 days rest so should take care of business.

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl tipping, nrl tipping 09

Warriors v Knights
Warriors by 6
Apparently I have free tickets to this game, though I'm still waiting to find out where the hell I get them from so I'll go for the Warriors (since it's them that are giving them to me).

Broncos v Bulldogs
Broncos by 4
I hear there's more chance of pigs flying than this game taking place at the present moment.

Panthers v Sea Eagles
Panthers by 4
Oh god I hope so. The Sea Eagles are starting to get their game on and what a pity that is. Be good if the Panthers can keep them struggling to enter the 8 for another week or two.

Rabbitohs v Storm
Storm by 18
The Rabbitohs really have lost the plot. Without enthusiasm and confidence they've got nothing and right now they don't have much enthusiasm or confidence so I'll leave it for you to work out.

Roosters v Titans
Titans by 8
Something strange is telling me to tip the Roosters but the Titans are playing with too much energy at the moment and the Roosters are being coached by somebody who appears to be not a very good coach.

Dragons v Cowboys
Dragons by 2
This should be one of the better matches this round. The over rated Dragons v the unpredictable Cowboys. If Thurstons on it's game on. If not the Dragons will stumble over the line.

Raiders v Sharks
Raiders by 14
The Sharks flattered to deceive in the past couple of weeks. The Eels threw it away late and the Warriors threw it away early and yet the Sharks still needed a shitty handling display by an ordinary team to win last week. Raiders will put them to the sword.

Eels v Tigers
Eels by 8
The Eels have a new found confidence and are at home. That said the Tigers are surely due (I said that last week didn't I?) for a win. But I think they are hitting a pretty crap team at a bad time while they themselves are purely having a bad time.

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl swine flu, nrl tipping, nrl tipping 2009, swine flu

Bit late posting here but I've been away and put them in the mix at sportsfreak with no commentary so will repeat that here.

Eels by 1 over the Cowboys
Storm by 4 over the Sea Eagles
Titans by 6 over the Rabbitohs
Sharks by 2 over the Roosters
Broncos by 8 over the Knights
Raiders by 4 over the Panthers
Dragons by 4 over the Warriors
Bulldogs by 10 over the Tigers

Got the first two right. Including those picks I have now improved to 67% for the season. Better than any of these muppets.

Please excuse me. My daughter wants me to jump up and down on the spare bed. I think I better buy her a trampoline.

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl tipping

Broncos v Eels
Broncos by 14
The Eels have had a fairly happy time of it up in Brisbane over the years but this side isn't playing well enough to threaten an upset here. The Broncos should be in control throughout.

Rabbitohs v Sharks
Rabbitohs by 8
Promises to be a bit of a borefest with the Bunnies off the boil and the Sharks dead in the water. Panic alarms will be hit out that way if this keeps up much lonnger. What a shame because Stuart is such a likeable bloke.

Cowboys v Sea Eagles
Cowboys by 4
The loss of the nutjob is a hammer blow to the Sea Eagles who had fed off his return to start playing footie again. They will still bring that into this game though so the game is on a knife edge and could come down to a few tight calls and the home team often seems to get a handup with those.

Roosters v Dragons
Dragons by 4
This will be interesting. The Roosters showed up to Mt Smart and played 40 minutes of football just like last year. They are going to develop a rep as a streaky team that goes well in patches and rubbish the rest of the time like the Bulldogs in recent years. Dragons to bounce back and pip them.

Storm v Warriors
Storm by 6
The Warriors will hold them for a lot of the game but get caught out by a piece or two of brilliance and some defence that clocks off.

Raiders v Bulldogs
Raiders by 8
This is hard to call. A team that usually plays well at home but this year is going OK away (Raiders) v a team that is going well but prone to folding when things don't go their way. Depends who is fastest out of the blocks and gets momentum and I think the Raiders might just spark.

Tigers v Knights
Tigers by 8
I have no confidence in this result whatsoever. The Knights knocked over the Dragons away last week and this Tigers side has gone WLWLLW with their key players seem to have trouble sparking two weeks in a row. Will be decided in the first half when one team shows it wants it more and the other concedes.

Panthers v Titans
Panthers by 6
The Panthers were horrible on defence last week and are playing a team that leads the comp but only has the 10th best attack averaging 18.7 points a game. This will be won with 3 or 4 tries by either team. The Titans have the best defence in the comp conceding just 12.3 points per match so the Panthers need to crack that tryline.

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl tipping

Bit more organised this week though not with too many hours to spare.

Panthers v Broncos
Broncos by 4
Am looking forward to watching this one. The Broncos are on the road for the second week in a row but are in good knick and the Panthers look like they aren't going to roll over for anyone. Broncos in a tight tussle.

Titans v Raiders
Titans by 6
The Titans mean business. Well until they lose a few to injury anyway. The Raiders meanwhile are winning on the road, this will be a bit more open than their Sharks match though and harder to pick because of that. I think I'll just favour the Titans at home to edge them.

Dragons v Knights
Dragons by 8
Now this match in the last couple of years wouldn't have inspired much interest but this year shapes as a good one. The Knights will rock up ready to take the white boot show ponies on but the Dragons have started the year well and won't want to balls this up.

Rabbitohs v Sea Eagles
Sea Eagles by 8
I would like nothing more than to see the Bunnies beat the birds but with Wesser out they will just lose enough to see them go down to a side that might now have started to get its tail (feathers?) up.

Warriors v Roosters
Warriors by 8
If the Warriors lose this they are staring down the barrel with away matches to Melbourne and St George in the next two weeks. Welcoming back Vatuvei and Price will help but the Roosters will want some playoff revenge so this could go to the wire. Have to favour the Warriors to have the ability to just dig deep enough.

Sharks v Cowboys
Sharks by 4
This match is in Adelaide so no home ground advantage as I'm sure people from South Australia hate both Queenslanders and New South Welshmen. Surely the Sharks will be desperate enough to grind it out over a side that just still hasn't seemed to improve from last season.

Eels v Bulldogs
Bulldogs by 4
One of those 80s clashes that sticks out for those following the game for a while. The Eels are pretty mediocre all over the park and the Bulldogs while not great have bought well and are in decent form. They'll get over the line against a valiant Eels outfit.

Tigers v Storm
Tigers by 10
I don't know why I am tipping the Tigers here but they are hit and miss and they missed last week. Farah and Marshall blamed themselves for the loss last week and I'm sure they've done that before this year so will probably not want to be singling themselves out all the time so maybe they'll spark something.

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl tipping 09

Was a tad busy and didn't have time to post them here but they were up at sportsfreak if you don't believe me. I've added comments to see how accurate I was.

Roosters vs Broncos
Broncos by 2
If this game was played last week you'd be all over the Broncos but after a handy win to the Roosters and the Broncos crashing at home it's a bit more in the balance. I think the Roosters may surprise but I'm just tilting the other way.

(Broncos by 4) In the end the Broncos did it fairly comfortably save for the last ten minutes when they went to sleep to make it fairly close on the scoreboard.

Eels vs Dragons
Dragons by 8
The Dragons are on a roll and the Eels are going to be a bottom four side this year. It is make or break time for them to prove otherwise, but I don't think it will happen in this one.

(Dragons by 14) Yep, about right though the Dragons walked over them more than thought.

Sharks vs Raiders
Sharks by 6
It really is great to see a side that plays negative, defence oriented football losing early on. It doesn't win you premierships (usually because you get blown out of the water before getting a title shot). But they are surely going to get over the line here... somehow.

(Raiders by 10) Jeez, the Sharks really have lost their confidence. I suppose it must be demoralising to have one game plan and know in advance that it ain't going to win the title or even get very close so they are probably wondering why they are even showing up to play footie.

Storm vs Panthers
Storm by 12
The Storm rolled at home by the Titans?! I saw it but couldn't believe it. They played their usual up the guts style but for some reason they weren't getting the results and the Titans clicked with their attacking raids. The Panthers were hot to trot and have back to back wins but surely both teams can't keep repeating....”

(Storm by 2) The Storm just aren't the side they have been in past seasons but they got a tight one done and the Panthers are probably starting to convince a few people that they won't be sucking on the wooden spoon.

Cowboys vs Titans
Cowboys by 10
This shapes as an interesting clash. Titans are healthy and proving they can win difficult road games. The Cowboys on the other hand are a side that can put you to bed when in the mood. The Titans might be a bit complacent after last week and have the night off.

(Titans by 4) As long as the Titans stay injury free they look alright and this is an impressive result.

Knights vs Warriors
Knights by 14
The Knights should run amok. The Warriors will welcome somebody, anybody back from injury but it won't be enough to knock over these guys at home.

(Knights by 2) Looked like I would be bang on here at one point but to give this Warriors side credit they are understrength and in years gone by they would have given up and lost by 40, but they rolled the sleeves up and gave themselves a shot.

Sea Eagles vs Tigers
Sea Eagles by 8
It ends here, now.

(Sea Eagles by 13) It ended alright. Stewart scoring 3 would have made everybody feel a bit uncomfortable, including many Sea Eagles fans who probably still think the guys a dickhead.

Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs
Bulldogs by 2
The Rabbits have a very solid attacking unit and their defense was incredibly organised and committed last week. The Bulldogs on the otherhand will throw up any old sort of effort so this is one of those 50/50 calls and I think they'll scrape home by a late try.

(Bulldogs by 2) Snap!!!

6 from 8. That's solid as fuck in this comp. I'll take it and move through to 60% for the season.

Labels: NRL 2009, nrl tipping

What a shocker last weekend. Still maybe I can go like the NZ cricket team and have a good one next time out.

Tigers v Roosters
Tigers by 10
Who the flupp knows? Both teams deciding they'll play one week and not bother tackling in the other. I like the Tigers more though.

Titans v Bulldogs
Titans by 4
The Bulldogs will have had the wind taken out of their sails and didn't entirely impress me last weekend. I was expecting to see them beat the Panthers with room to spare not throw 14 players out there and get a last minute try and conversion to snatch a fake win. Titans will grind them out at home.

Warriors v Broncos
Warriors by 8
This should be a little ripper. I am going to pick the Warriors at home all year though I know they will drop the odd match. This is a possible candidate but with a massive crowd and a good dose of confidence they would have to be favoured to carry it on and be the only team on 6 points after 3 rounds.

Raiders v Eels
Raiders by 10
Never underestimate the power of a shit performance motivating a team for next week. Once got spanked 110-5 in a game of rugby only to get a win the next weekend. Ah the memories of watching the backs of Otahuhu players running under the sticks for 80 minutes. they only beat us by 40-0 next time. We cleverly took 9 penalty shots at goal from all over the park to use up the clock.

Cowboys v Storm
Cowboys by 4
The jockeys will ride onwards after last weeks effort hurdling the Storm which is more like a strong wind and persistent rain when compared to previous years. Confidence is a great thing, especially when used whilst strutting round your own dressage arena. OK, I will avoid stupid puns from now on. Maybe.

Rabbitohs v Knights
Rabbitohs by 6
The Rabbitohs will be staring down the barrel if they lose this. Starting the season with 3 home games v 3 ordinary teams and coming away with 2 points will see them asking for a poison drop down their own warren. The Knights grabbed a win and so won't be quite as hungry and that will prove the difference. Damn, more puns.

Dragons v Sharks
Dragons by 4
The Sharks played like shit last weekend and the Dragons are just shitheads. Expect a fairly tight match with 40 points scored all up.

Sea Eagles v Panthers
Sea Eagles by 14
There's no way the Sea Eagles will ditch three games running, especially at home. They were pretty decent v the Warriors and should have held on if not for SOME STACEY JONES MAGIC (especially for LB) and are up against a Panthers lineup that probably just won't have the guns nor the confidence to get the job done.

Labels: nrl, NRL 2009, nrl tipping 09

After last weeks solid 6 from 8 I'm ready to show my class in week 2. This will have to be known as the Grant Fox Dedication round as I didn't see any of the games last week. I listened to the Tigers and Raiders on the radio and saw bits of the Warriors game but was that blind drunk from the beer festival that I couldn't quite appreciate what I was seeing.

anyway, aim to see a couple of this weeks games like, fo real.

Broncos v Storm
Storm by 4
Big game, even matchup, I'm edging towards the Storm because of the coaching being an unfair matchup but it's a bit of a coin toss. Will be one of those tight ones that comes down to a kick or two and a drop goal.


Rabbitohs v Eels
Rabbitohs by 8
Hmmmmmmm, sometimes teams play like crap after having a team roll over and die for them the week before and the Rabbitohs could fall victim to that. Especially against a solid Eels side who won't want to be 0-2. But I'll go out on a limb and give the bunnies a pat like my two year old did in the Kumeu Show last weekend.

Dragons v Titans
Dragons by 10
The Titans surged home at home and I think that's what will favour the Dragons this week. Even sorts of teams but the crowd will get the Dragons over the line.

Panthers v Bulldogs
Bulldogs by 12
The panthers could turn up and turn on a (small) show but the Bulldogs look to have hit the ground running this year and I expect their momentum to last for a few weeks at least.

Cowboys v Tigers
Cowboys by 14
The Cowboys are going to rock out with their cocks out this weekend. A shit year last year and a narrow loss last week. They will be focussed and edgy and the Tigers will be on the end of it.

Raiders v Roosters
Raiders by 16
Raiders are often dynamite in the nations capital and the Roosters look turgid. Oh how sad. Bitch slap them green machine. And make it hurt.

Sea Eagles v Warriors
Sea Eagles by 4
One team kind of proved a point last week, while the other needs to prove one this weekend. Sea Eagles to just have that mental edge to get them over the line. If the Warriors can win its the type of win that will get Warriors fans salivating and trying to hide their hard-on.... or not, as the case may be.

Sharks v Knights
Sharks by 8
Unfortunately for the Knights they are starting with a couple of road games. If they'd played the Titans and Sharks in Newcastle I'd have happily tipped them and they'd be off to the sort of start that would launch them on the road to the playoffs. They'll win plenty at home and upset a few on the road but not for a while yet.

Labels: NRL 2009, nrl tipping 09

In the 1920s an awkward, gangly, wart-ridden New Zealand foal arrived in Australia to the dismay of the man who had bought him based solely on pedigree.

But given a little time, the right training, and a lot of heart, the ungainly foal went on to turn a depression on its head for many a hard-up punter.

He gave people down on their luck a reason to look up again, he repaid the unemployed and struggling with enough courage to lay their last farthing on him with a bookie, many many times over.

He gave punters hope.

Within years that Kiwi runt was a national hero known alternatively The Red Terror, Big Red and officially Phar Lap.

In 2009, the world finds itself in a similar position - the repugnant behaviour of the world's wealthiest individuals and its unchecked financial systems has hit the little man hardest again.

While the the little man's house gets repossesed the Madoffs of our world sit pretty in their million dollar apartments.

While the world's biggest companies get billions in tax payer bailouts and their chief executives' salaries rocket the little man is told he has to work fewer hours to save his mates' jobs.

Enough!

Its time for people to seize their destiny back, to stop swallowing the stinking shit of big business, to take on the very system that fucks them over, and emerge defiantly waving their middle finger in the face of the Man.

Bloggingitreal brings to you NRL 2009 - tipping.

For the coming 30 rounds of the NRL 2009 Season I will be placing
5 x $10 multibets with the New Zealand TAB; week in and week out.

The rules:

• One bet must tip a team across every match (i.e. tip 8 winning teams head to head)
• I cannot bet against myself (i.e take one team in one mulitbet and pick the other team in another)
• I cannot bet more than $10 on a single bet (this will change in the finals when fewer teams are competing)
• All bets will be posted prior to the start of the round on Friday nights
• All results will be posted, win-loss ration records kept
  

Other than that, there are no rules (unless I think of some more good ones) I can tip first point scorers, margins, first scoring plays, head to head, unders and overs, last scoring play - whatever.

Some matches I will just tip, on others I will provide detailed analysis and rational for my bets.

I will analyze the tips of professional punters at onthepunt, monitor the experts' tips and rugby league journalism at smh.com.au in order to bring you the inside word.

So open those TAB accounts, raid the coin jars and ashtrays, and get ready to feel good about life again!

Labels: Madoff, NRL 2009, prosperity, The Red Terror