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Sunday, September 09, 2012

The Beginnings of a Degenerate Gambler... 

This'll become a movie if it turns to shit.  May as well write the script live.

I'll just start this off by saying I've gone into this not having a clue what I'm doing other than betting on sports.  I vaguely remember going into a TAB at Westgate about ten years ago and putting $5 or $10 on a league or rugby game that didn't come in for me and I retired.  All great athletes come back from retirement.  Most fail badly.

Step One: Open TAB Account and pump it fill to the brim with $10.
Step Two: Find 5 x $2 bets.
Step Three: Wait...

Right, so

Bet one was Auckland to beat Waikato by 12 or under and they come in for me netting a $4.40 profit.

Bet two was Wellington to beat Canterbury @ $2.35.  Now this was my first fuck up and it took all of a few minutes after my first bet.  I thought the game was in Wellington and I figured those were generous odds.  The second I saw the game kickoff in Christchurch I wrote my money off.

Bet three was thanks to a mate who said he knew a good baseball bet on Seattle beating Oakland by 2 or more.  They duely got hammered.  And this guy knows what he's doing.  Just not always clearly.

Bet four was the Warriors Toyota Cup side to win.  They were paying $2.05 which made them underdogs.  They are better than the Raiders, problem was they were playing in Canberra because the Warriors prems hadn't qualified for the playoffs.  And with a few minutes left they had a 6 point lead and were attacking the Raiders line.  This is of course where they channel the prems brains and completely butcher things and lose.  Cheers.

Bet five is the St Louis Rams to beat Detroit Lions @ 3.90.  Now this just ain't gonna happen but I'm a Rams fan and this is me breaking rule number one of betting (I think.  If I was to guess what the rules of sports betting are I'd guess that this was rule number one).  And that being that you bet with your brain not your heart, or certainly not what you desperately want to happen.  The Rams have been the worst team in the NFL for the past 5 years.  They should improve as the year goes on but they've brought in a new coach and chucked out half their (real) shitty team so will take a while to gel (if they do at all).

So anyway's...

From that $10, I lost 6 of it, have $2 still in play and won back $6.40 which I promptly 'reinvested', which is code for 'gave the TAB a second chance to take off me'.

And I've chucked that $6 in a series of $1 investments based purely on jounalists at Grantland.
$1 @ $2.35 on the Raiders to beat the Sharks by 12 and under and with 5 minutes left I was looking good, nek minut.
$1 @ $2.45 on Houston by 12 and under
$1 @ $1.82 on New Orleans with a 7.5 point start
$1 @ $4.00 on Kansas City to win their division
$1 @ $4.00 on Seattle to win their division (they probably won't, 49ers whould do it but then they over achieved last year)
$1 @ 5.75 on Carolina to win their division on the back of Cam Newton (this won't happen but it's not a strong division and those odds are pretty good.

So I've certainly stretched my $10 out.  For me to make it back I'll need 2-3 of the 6 bets I still have in play to come in.

Stay tuned...


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