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Sunday, September 16, 2012

Beginners Luck 

Week 2
My bets that I still had floating about from week 1 crapped out.  Houston won by 20, not 12 and under.  New Orleans who I had to win, got smoked by the Redskins and RGIII in the Superdome.  Having your coach suspended for the year might not work for them.

But this week things got tasty.

During the Manawatu v N Harbour game I decided to put $1 on the bucketheads at $5 and they came home so netted me $4 profit.

I got told of a good baseball multi so put a $1 on it and it went south quickfast.

I then decided I'd have a crack at a multi over the weekend
$1 on this...
BOP to beat Auckland @3.30
Counties to beat Otago @1.33
Taranaki to beat Canterbury @2.00
Wellington to beat Waikato @1.33
Northland to beat Tasman @3.30
and Southland to beat Hawkes Bay @1.67

and low and behold it came in for $64.30.  Not bad for a buck outlay.  If I'd tacked the Manawatu game on which I did pick then it'd be $320 but oh well, I hadn't even considered a multi at that point.

I did a bit of bet hedging by picking Canterbury by 12 and under, a multi with some different winners in the last 4 games, I also picked Tasman to win, and backed a draw in the HB v Southland game and chucked $9 on HB to win.

All that meant that I ended up spending $20 on that series of games in some way shape or form.

Going into the Southland v Hawkes Bay game there were three scenarios.
Draw = I get back $20 meaning I make $0 profit
HB Win = I get back $18.90 meaning  a loss of $1.10
Southland win = I get back $64.30 meaning a profit of $44.30

And it was that last scenario that came in for me :)

I'd say I could try and pick 6 straight ITM Cup games another 50 weekends and not do it.  Usually there will be one or two from left field.  But the funny thing is that I simply picked the 6 teams who I thought would win.  Yes, 3 of them were upsets but this is a salary cap comp, and the teams that loast aren't great sides.  All the ITM Cup teams are pretty mediocre so I was surprised that BOP and Northland were paying over $3.

My other bet was $1 on Manly to beat the Cowboys @1.80 so a whole 80 cents profit.

In terms of overall right now I am up $34.30.

I've also got those 3 division winner bets still in play along with these...
$1 on Newcastle to beat Everton at Goodison Park @ 4.10
$1 on Carolina Panthers to beat New Orleans @2.15 (I'm going with the Saints under performing this season and the Panthers were awful last week so will want to get their season rolling at home.
$1 on the Rams to go 1-1 with a win over the Redskins @2.30  I have no confidence with the Rams as they're my team and have now won from memory 2 of their last 18 games.  And numerous in the last minute.  Just like last week!
a sneaky one...
$1 on Daegu to beat Sangju in the K-League.  Rumour is that Sangju might forfeit because the AFC have said no government run teams can play in premier divisions and Sangju is the military team.  I don't know if they will play or not.  If they don't the game will be awarded to Daegu and I presume the bet will be cancelled.

I'm going to take half my money out of my account and spend it on something sensible like booze.  And play around with the rest on a few bets for next weekend.  But am going to stick to my $10 a weekend rule...  I've just built up a three week fund :)


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