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Thursday, May 20, 2004

NRL Title odds and ... 

Before I get into it, what in gods name has Bill Harrigan been smoking?!

Looking at the teams in the NRL and the odds the TAB has on them winning the title I see the teams basically split into four categories.

The 'no-hopers' (to win the title)
The 'minor miracles' (would be very lucky even to make the last four)
The 'surprises' (might well make the final four, but outsiders for the final and title)
And the 'no surprises' (will probably make the last four and should go one or two steps further)

Here are the teams put into my categories as I see it with their odds to win the title and what I think after it.

'no surprises'
Roosters ($2.85) – hard to see past them. Got the players and motivation after last year.
Bulldogs ($5.50) – motivated but can they keep it together or will they choke once again?
Panthers ($5.50) – very good team but I doubt they are good enough to repeat.

Broncos ($7.50) –always competitive and when they make the semis they usually do well but don't quite have enough top class players to win it.
Knights ($16) – without Johns they can't go all the way but have finally got used to life without him recently, and if he did come back in the playoffs (like I heard he might) then who knows?

'minor miracles'
Dragons ($9) – $9 bucks?! Pull the other one! Especially with dorks like Mark Gasnier in your team.
Storm ($16) – yeah right, try $30.
Warriors ($22) – you must be joking! I wouldn't bet on them if they were paying $50.
Raiders ($30) – start praying.
Eels ($40) – read above.
Sharks ($50) – read above the line where it says "read above" (no, not this line you idiot!).

'no-hopers' – under no circumstances should you even consider the possibility that these teams could make it past 7th spot on the ladder. The $1,000 dollars the Rabbitohs would pay out should really be the odds on them making the top 8.
Cowboys ($60)
Tigers ($60)
Sea Eagles ($100)
Rabbitohs ($1,000)

Looking at the Brumbies v Crusaders game two days out, it's hard to see past the Brumbies. You have to give the Crusaders a fighting chance I suppose especially given their track record but for the sake of the game it would be nice to see an open match with plenty of tries. Stuff what that scrotum Steven Jones thinks. It seems like the guy must cry in pain everytime a team crosses for a try.

Looking at the poll conducted in I see that 65% selected the Crusaders to win and 35% for the Brumbies.

While the poll at has recorded 2359 votes with 61% favouring the Crusaders v 39% for the Brumbies.

From these two polls we can deduce that slightly dumber New Zealanders visit the website.

Remember people, the Brumbies ran away with the round robin and are playing at home. And as bennyasena pointed out the Brumbies are paying $1.50 to the Crusaders $2.50.

I wonder if these same people will put their money where their mouth is?

I'm going to put $416 (1/3rd of my dental fantasy betting fund) on the Bulldogs to beat the Tigers at $1.45. My associates here are more than welcome to bet the same amount on whatever they choose. We are going to be fantasy rich I tell you!!!!

And if anybody would like me to name a Korean child after them then let me know at Seriously I have to give the kids English names all the time and I'm getting sick to death of having to come up with decent ones. There's only so many times I can use "Jenny, Mary, Sally, Jane, Sue, Suzie, Mike, John, Jason, Nick, Steven, Tom ...".

And in the cricket New Zealand is 80/1 at lunch.
MH Richardson *32 85 balls 5 boundaries (we need a 100 out of him)
NJ Astle *8 15 balls 1 boundary (get your eye in Nathan and we should then see a few runs)

SP Fleming c Strauss b SP Jones 34 72 balls 4 boundaries
From cricinfo [Jones bowled a wide, full delivery outside off, which Fleming tried to wallop through the covers. But he instead leant back too far and skewed the ball to Andrew Strauss, the debutant, who took a good head-high catch at point].

[update, Astle made a rollicking 64 of 77 deliveries before Styris made a 3 ball duck. 162/3 at 3.31 an over.]

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