blogging it real

I predict that after a great deal of heat - and vast expenditure of financial, political and environmental capital - the four federal parties with representation will end up with about the same number of MPs they had when Parliament was dissolved, and the Conservatives will have a relatively tight minority.

It's First Past the Post, so grossly unfair of course ... last time the NDP won more than 1,000,000 votes than the Bloc, but 22 fewer MPs (29 vs 51). The joys of having your voters geographically concentrated in the case of the Bloc (which won 42% of the popular vote in Quebec, and will do so again today).

Useful to bear such inequities in mind as National promotes its referendum on ridding New Zealand of proportional representation.

I predict the reigning Tories vote will ease to 35% (down from 36.5%), the Liberals will dip to 27% (from 30.2), with the NDP up 0.5% to 18%, the Bloc unchanged at 10.5% (42% in Quebec), and the Greens up 4% to 8.5%.

Of course, being FPP, such percentages can count for very little. The Greens, for example, will not get an MP. The NDP will be exceptionally lucky if they can convert 18% support to even 40/308 MPs.

I predict something like:
Conservatives 122 (127 at dissolution)
Liberals 95 (95 at dissolution)
NDP 38 (30 at dissolution)
Bloc 51 (48 at dissolution)
Greens 0
Independents 2

Labels: Canadian federal election, first past the post