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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

NRL Playoff Upsets and other odds and ends 

First off on the scalping, my mates and I tried in vain to buy tickets this morning. And the bogus reasons for onselling tickets is pathetic. Also apparently the tickets state on them that it is illegal to onsell them without written consent from the NRL. Trademe say they can't stop them as they aren't breaking any laws but surely tickets on trademe which have that as a legal condition on them should have to display the written consent from the organisation in a photo with the auction. If not then trademe is aiding and abetting and I'd like to see the NRL or anybody else for that matter take a stand and take trademe to court. I realise it would be like asking for proof of ownership of everything on trademe but this is a bit different as the tickets state on them what the legal requirements are so by appearing for sale on trademe they are breaking that 'law' then and there, clear for all to see.

And for the record I've changed my mind on the injustice to the Storm. They should have been eliminated altogether with that loss. If Wellington lose to the 8th placed team in the quarterfinals of the NPC in a months time they won't be complaining about a semi away from home. They'll be in the pub watching on TV. All other sports where one plays 8 like the American football (1 v 6 in each conference actually), NBA, MLB etc all have straight elimination. Fuck losing and staying alive.

Anyway, I thought I'd do a bit of research on the number of upsets in week one since they went to the McIntyre System in 1999 (incidentally the Storm won the comp that year, just their second effort).

1999: Bulldogs (5) beat Roosters (4) 12-8, Dragons (6) beat Storm (3) 34-10.
2000: Eels (7) beat Roosters (2) 32-8
2001: Dragons (7) beat Bulldogs (2) 23-22
2002: Dragons (7) beat Knights (2) 26-22
2003: Storm (5) beat Raiders (4) 30-18, Warriors (6) beat Bulldogs (3) 48-22
2004: Storm (6) beat Broncos (3) 31-14, Cowboys (7) beat Bulldogs (2) 30-22
2005: Storm (6) beat Broncos (3) 24-18
2006: Dragons (6) beat Broncos (3) 20-4
2007: Eels (5) beat Warriors (4) 12-10 cheers Logan Swann.
2008: Broncos (5) beat Roosters (4) 24-16, Warriors (8) beat Storm (1) 18-15

So to get my highlighter pen out, the most upsets have been in the 6v3 game where there's been 5 upsets from 9 games. There's been 4 upsets in the 4v5 and 3v6 games and only the one in the 1v8 game. So 14 upsets all up in 36 games. A reasonably high ratio but probably about right for the NRL with the salary cap. Interesting though how the 3rd ranked team has bottled it more times than not. Possibly because they assume that teams 1 and 2 will win and they are effectively playing for nothing. And until the Storm loss in the weekend they would have been right in each of the previous 3 years. Biggest bottlers are the Bulldogs (3), Roosters (3), Broncos (3) Storm (2) and the Warriors, Knights and Raiders 1 each.

The 1 v 8 clashes have all been won by the number one ranked team until this year as has been constantly mentioned. Here's the results:

1999: Sharks 42 Broncos 20
2000: Broncos 34 Sharks 20
2001: Eels 56 Warriors 12
2002: Warriors 36 Raiders 20
2003: Panthers 28 Broncos 18
2004: Roosters 38 Raiders 12
2005: Eels 46 Sea Eagles 22
2006: Storm 12 Eels 6
2007: Storm 40 Broncos 0
2008: Storm 15 Warriors 18

And the finalists for each year are the teams with the following rankings (bold teams won the premiership):
1999: Storm (3) Dragons (6) - The Storm got dicked in week 1 but then had 3 consecutive 2 point wins to take the title.
2000: Broncos (1) Roosters (2)
2001: Eels (1) Knights (3)
2002: Warriors (1) Roosters (4)
2003: Panthers (1) Roosters (2)
2004: Roosters (1) Bulldogs (2)
2005: Tigers (4) Cowboys (5)
2006: Storm (1) Broncos (3)
2007: Storm (1) Sea Eagles (2)

So the higher ranked team has won the final 5 times from 8.
Winning teams ranking:
1 - 3 wins
2 - 1 win
3 - 3 wins
4 - 2 wins

So the 3rd ranked team has been as successful as the minor premiership winners and team 2 always seems to do it tough with just 4 grand final appearances from 9 and 1 win. Grand final appearances as follows...
1 (7 appearances)
2 (4 appearances)
3 (3 appearances and has won them all)
4 (2 appearances and has won both)
5 (1 appearance)
6 (1 appearance)

That adds up to teams 3 and 4 having more grand final success than teams 1 and 2. Go figure.

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