blogging it real

I won millions gambling and retired.

Week 2
My bets that I still had floating about from week 1 crapped out.  Houston won by 20, not 12 and under.  New Orleans who I had to win, got smoked by the Redskins and RGIII in the Superdome.  Having your coach suspended for the year might not work for them.

But this week things got tasty.

During the Manawatu v N Harbour game I decided to put $1 on the bucketheads at $5 and they came home so netted me $4 profit.

I got told of a good baseball multi so put a $1 on it and it went south quickfast.

I then decided I'd have a crack at a multi over the weekend
$1 on this...
BOP to beat Auckland @3.30
Counties to beat Otago @1.33
Taranaki to beat Canterbury @2.00
Wellington to beat Waikato @1.33
Northland to beat Tasman @3.30
and Southland to beat Hawkes Bay @1.67

and low and behold it came in for $64.30.  Not bad for a buck outlay.  If I'd tacked the Manawatu game on which I did pick then it'd be $320 but oh well, I hadn't even considered a multi at that point.

I did a bit of bet hedging by picking Canterbury by 12 and under, a multi with some different winners in the last 4 games, I also picked Tasman to win, and backed a draw in the HB v Southland game and chucked $9 on HB to win.

All that meant that I ended up spending $20 on that series of games in some way shape or form.

Going into the Southland v Hawkes Bay game there were three scenarios.
Draw = I get back $20 meaning I make $0 profit
HB Win = I get back $18.90 meaning  a loss of $1.10
Southland win = I get back $64.30 meaning a profit of $44.30

And it was that last scenario that came in for me :)

I'd say I could try and pick 6 straight ITM Cup games another 50 weekends and not do it.  Usually there will be one or two from left field.  But the funny thing is that I simply picked the 6 teams who I thought would win.  Yes, 3 of them were upsets but this is a salary cap comp, and the teams that loast aren't great sides.  All the ITM Cup teams are pretty mediocre so I was surprised that BOP and Northland were paying over $3.

My other bet was $1 on Manly to beat the Cowboys @1.80 so a whole 80 cents profit.

In terms of overall right now I am up $34.30.

I've also got those 3 division winner bets still in play along with these...
$1 on Newcastle to beat Everton at Goodison Park @ 4.10
$1 on Carolina Panthers to beat New Orleans @2.15 (I'm going with the Saints under performing this season and the Panthers were awful last week so will want to get their season rolling at home.
$1 on the Rams to go 1-1 with a win over the Redskins @2.30  I have no confidence with the Rams as they're my team and have now won from memory 2 of their last 18 games.  And numerous in the last minute.  Just like last week!
and
a sneaky one...
$1 on Daegu to beat Sangju in the K-League.  Rumour is that Sangju might forfeit because the AFC have said no government run teams can play in premier divisions and Sangju is the military team.  I don't know if they will play or not.  If they don't the game will be awarded to Daegu and I presume the bet will be cancelled.

I'm going to take half my money out of my account and spend it on something sensible like booze.  And play around with the rest on a few bets for next weekend.  But am going to stick to my $10 a weekend rule...  I've just built up a three week fund :)

This'll become a movie if it turns to shit.  May as well write the script live.

I'll just start this off by saying I've gone into this not having a clue what I'm doing other than betting on sports.  I vaguely remember going into a TAB at Westgate about ten years ago and putting $5 or $10 on a league or rugby game that didn't come in for me and I retired.  All great athletes come back from retirement.  Most fail badly.

Step One: Open TAB Account and pump it fill to the brim with $10.
Step Two: Find 5 x $2 bets.
Step Three: Wait...

Right, so

Bet one was Auckland to beat Waikato by 12 or under and they come in for me netting a $4.40 profit.

Bet two was Wellington to beat Canterbury @ $2.35.  Now this was my first fuck up and it took all of a few minutes after my first bet.  I thought the game was in Wellington and I figured those were generous odds.  The second I saw the game kickoff in Christchurch I wrote my money off.

Bet three was thanks to a mate who said he knew a good baseball bet on Seattle beating Oakland by 2 or more.  They duely got hammered.  And this guy knows what he's doing.  Just not always clearly.

Bet four was the Warriors Toyota Cup side to win.  They were paying $2.05 which made them underdogs.  They are better than the Raiders, problem was they were playing in Canberra because the Warriors prems hadn't qualified for the playoffs.  And with a few minutes left they had a 6 point lead and were attacking the Raiders line.  This is of course where they channel the prems brains and completely butcher things and lose.  Cheers.

Bet five is the St Louis Rams to beat Detroit Lions @ 3.90.  Now this just ain't gonna happen but I'm a Rams fan and this is me breaking rule number one of betting (I think.  If I was to guess what the rules of sports betting are I'd guess that this was rule number one).  And that being that you bet with your brain not your heart, or certainly not what you desperately want to happen.  The Rams have been the worst team in the NFL for the past 5 years.  They should improve as the year goes on but they've brought in a new coach and chucked out half their (real) shitty team so will take a while to gel (if they do at all).

So anyway's...

From that $10, I lost 6 of it, have $2 still in play and won back $6.40 which I promptly 'reinvested', which is code for 'gave the TAB a second chance to take off me'.

And I've chucked that $6 in a series of $1 investments based purely on jounalists at Grantland.
$1 @ $2.35 on the Raiders to beat the Sharks by 12 and under and with 5 minutes left I was looking good, nek minut.
$1 @ $2.45 on Houston by 12 and under
$1 @ $1.82 on New Orleans with a 7.5 point start
$1 @ $4.00 on Kansas City to win their division
$1 @ $4.00 on Seattle to win their division (they probably won't, 49ers whould do it but then they over achieved last year)
$1 @ 5.75 on Carolina to win their division on the back of Cam Newton (this won't happen but it's not a strong division and those odds are pretty good.

So I've certainly stretched my $10 out.  For me to make it back I'll need 2-3 of the 6 bets I still have in play to come in.

Stay tuned...

Ah, yes, my annual effort to work out how many Kiwi's are playing in the NRL.  This won't be the full list because I've got 74 here and in previous years it's been closer to 90.  There will be a few that snuck through and played a handful of games that I haven't spotted.  Probably especially important how disgraceful how the Warriors have been, but still getting 7 named in the Kiwi train on squad for the one off test v the Kangaroo fuckers.  Anyhow...

Brisbane BroncosGerard Beale
Alex Glenn
Ben Te'O
Josh Hoffman

Canberra Raiders
Sam Mataora
Josh Papalii
Bronson Harrison

Canterbury Bulldogs
Sam Casiano
Martin Taupau
Greg Eastwood
Bryson Goodwin
Frank Pritchard
Dene Halatau
Sam Perritt
Krisnan Inu
Manly Sea EaglesSteve Matai
Kieran Foran
Liam Foran
Joe Galuvao
Dean Whare

Cronulla Sharks
Jeremy Smith

North Queensland Cowboys
Jason Taumalolo
Ricky Thorby
Kalifa Faifai Loa
Antonio Winterstein

Melbourne Storm
Jack Afamasaga
Jesse Bromwich
Sika Manu
Matt Duffie
Kevin Proctor

South Sydney Rabbitohs
Isaac Luke
Roy Asotasi
Fetuli Talanoa

Wests Tigers
Benji Marshall
Matt Utai
Junior Moors
Ben Murdoch-Masilia

Newcastle Knights
Siuatonga Likiliki
Marvin Filipo

New Zealand Warriors
Lewis Brown
Elijah Taylor
Glen Fisiiahi
Simon Mannering
Carlos Tuimavave
Bill Tupou
Alehana Mara
Ben Henry
Pita Godinet
Ben Matulino
Russell Packer
Sebastine Ikahihifo
Shaun Johnson
Sam Rapira
Steve Rapira
Kevin Locke
Jerome Ropati
Sam Lousi
Ukuma Ta'ai

Penrith Panthers
Junior Vaivai
Etu Uaisele
Sam McKendry

Parramatta Eels
Fuifui Moimoi
Taulima Tautai
Justin Horo
Junior Paulo
Daniel Penese

Sydney Roosters
Frank-Paul Nu'uausala
Shaun Kenny-Dowall
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves

Gold Coast Titans

St George Dragons
Nathan Fien
Jason Nightingale
Chase Stanley
Leeson Ah Mau
Bronx Goodwin

Javed Miandad was fucking useless (I did that to get Indian google search results led here)

328/6
ummm, tentatively... did we actually win the day???
0 McCullum - got the cliched 'good ball' that openers 'often get'.

17 Williamson - same old...
53 Guptill - I'm at the point where I'll take a '50 where he didn't convert' over a 0 or 17. Because 6 x 53 = 318/6, whereas 0 + 17 x 3 = 51/6 (slight difference).

113 Taylor - cometh the slogger, cometh the hour. While he did throw caution to the wind it wasn't ridiculously. There was an element of composure in amongst it. Perhaps he has to decide between either trying to become a traditional test batsman over the remainder of his career or batting like Virender Sehwag.

33 Flynn - fuck it, that'll do.

8 Franklin - same old same old. Looks solidly stiff.

63* Van Wyk - Likes the quicks, not sure about the spinners, but has stck around and put the ball away nicely. You can't argue anytime your keeper gets a half century, especially when it's not a great batting pitch and your team is shit house.

30* Bracwell - I'll take it!!!!!!

to come... Patel, Southee, Boult.
Worst case scenario we get 340 with a quick wicket and then skittled. Best case scenario (with 2 sloggers - Bracewell and Southee) we get 450. I'd say 380 is a par score from here.

This is the part where I look at all the duds.  In other words the teams that celebrate Mad Monday on the same day but really they don't deserve to celebrate much because they've given their fans nothing to celebrate.

In order to do this I'm going to compare their finishing position last year with this year (which is an obvious thing to do) and then have a look at any extenuating factors (excuses, excuses).

After wee one of the playoffs I will look at the two teams eleminated and so on.

Finishing spots from 2011 in brackets

2012
16. Parramatta (14)
They've been the most streaky team in the competition for the past 3 or so seasons though this year it's been more of the type of streak that you find in your undies after too much physical exertion.  They weren't expected to set the world on fire but with the signing of Chris Sandow who was dynamite in the backend of last year for the Rabbitohs they had the potential to be darkhorses if Hayne could stay fit.  Sadly for the Eels Sandow never really hit his straps, and was even dumped to reserve grade at one point, while Hayne missed a lot of football through injury.  And then there was Kearney.  Now while there was simply no doubt that he had to be fired because his winning record was truly dire (the sort you'd get with the very worst teams pre-salary cap), you have to feel a bit sorry for him because this is a very mediocre side, and without their two sparks playing well, or at all they were never going to be able to win many football games.

They finished about where you'd expect them too to be honest.

more to come...

Seven exclamation marks.

What was that?  Speak up, I can't hear you.  Oh.  You didn't say anything?  But... but... aren't you the Leader of the Opposition?  What the hell man?  So here's the Government doing plenty of dumb and dodgy things, on top of applying a failed ideology to its policy interventions, and you're intervening in shit fights among your advisers while reorganising the party machine! 
Fuck that David!  Was the job title confusing?  You Lead the Opposition. Please just stand up and say something about what you don't like and what you'd do differently - and if you don't know precisely what you would do differently, then talk about the principles involved.  If you can't oppose and propose - preferably AT VOLUME - fuck off.   And don't give me any shit about "building up" or "appearing statesman-like" - you don't get to set the agenda in opposition.